Republican Gov. Scott Walker has a political war on his hands. When he introduced his budget repair bill on February 11, which significantly restricted public employee collective bargaining for 175,000 Wisconsin employees, the unions began their relentless pushback, and it’s likely going to persist through the November 2012 elections.
Walker’s political war is playing out in three stages: the first stage is already finished (state Supreme Court race); the second stage is currently under way (nine state Senate recall elections); and the third stage will likely unfold next year as the anti-Walker and union activists force the governor into a recall election of his own. Let’s take a look at all three stages.
State Supreme Court Race
The record-setting vote totaling 1.5 million in the April 5 State Supreme Court race was generated, in large part, by the highly partisan fight over public employee collective bargaining. Democrats and unions framed the Supreme Court race between Attorney JoAnne Kloppenburg and Justice David Prosser as a potential rejection of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, his controversial collective bargaining restrictions, as well as his significant state spending cuts to bring the state’s finances into balance.
In short, the state Supreme Court race became a proxy fight between the unions and Walker, with Kloppenburg portrayed as the anti-Walker candidate, and Prosser the GOP rubber stamp with the “Prosser Equals Walker” theme. Prosser won the race, but not by much. Round one went to Gov. Walker.
State Senate Recalls
The second phase of this war involves nine state Senate recall elections. The goal for the unions is to flip control of the state Senate from Republican to Democratic control. Republicans control the Senate 19-14, so Democrats need a net shift of three seats to regain the upper chamber they lost in November 2010.
Three Democrats and six Republicans are facing recall elections in July primaries and August general elections. If Democrats succeed in taking control of the state Senate, Gov. Walker’s agenda will have to change. With both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature now controlled by the GOP, Walker has been able to pass virtually all his policy agenda with some modifications. A split legislature, with one house controlled by Democrats and the other house Republicans, would force Walker to compromise or face the possibility of getting very little accomplished. Democrats would simply shut down the passing of any legislation they disagreed with.
Round two will be finished by mid-August when voters go to the polls to decide the fate of Republicans on August 9, and Democrats on August 16. If Republicans hold the Senate, Walker wins round two. If Democrats flip the chamber, round two goes to the Unions.
Likely Walker Recall Election
The third phase of the war between Gov. Walker and the unions is the likely prospect of Walker’s own recall election in 2012. National and state unions, along with the State Democratic Party, have made very clear that they intend to organize a recall election to remove the governor from office next year. And the first requirement for a recall is gathering enough signatures to trigger an election.
The number of valid signatures needed to force a recall is about 540,000 valid signatures statewide. Some experts see this as a monumental task while others believe a highly-motivated group of paid and volunteer activists could gather the signatures in the 60-day period with relative ease.
Signature gathering was far more difficult in the age before the internet, but the electronic revolution has changed this process in a dramatic way. Both Democrat and Republican signature collectors, all combined, were able to gather 188,756 signatures to qualify nine State Senators for recall this summer. In the 32nd Senate District (Kapanke) and the 18th Senate District (Hopper), recall committees turned in the required signatures weeks before the 60-day deadline.
In Ohio, opponents of Gov. John Kashich’s push to strip public employees of collective bargaining rights needed only 231,000 valid signatures to force a statewide referendum that could override the legislation. Organizers turned in 1.3 million - nearly six times the required number - to force a November vote on overturning the state’s new law.
The collective bargaining changes in Wisconsin directly affected 175,000 public employees when they went into effect in July. But the total number of union households in Wisconsin is much higher (one estimate is 425,772), and many of these union members, even those who were not impacted by the new law, could easily be motivated to help gather the required signatures for a Walker recall election next year.
The intensity of the union effort to recall Gov. Walker is broad and already under way. “United Wisconsin,” a statewide organization with the singular mission of recalling Walker from the governor’s chair, had 190,608 pledges from individuals to sign the recall petition as of July 5 and assist with future signature gathering.
Gov. Walker will have to wait for the Senate recalls to finish before all the attention turns back his way. By the middle of August, the political spotlight will shift his direction for round three.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.