The historic state Senate recall elections are now well underway in Wisconsin. Why are these elections historic? Who is running and where are they running? What are the voting habits of these districts? These are all important questions. Here are a few facts to help guide you through these unprecedented elections as they progress.
Incumbent Senators Facing Recall - 3 Democrats, 6 Republicans
State Supreme Court Race 2011
The candidates facing recall and their campaign staff have spent a lot of time reviewing the results of the hotly contested and nearly tied 2011 state Supreme Court race for possible clues to the outcome of the recall elections. They are wondering if the Kloppenburg-Prosser numbers in each of the nine districts facing state Senate recall elections will predict the outcome of these elections in August. (As you recall, Prosser won this race by only 7,004 votes.)
It’s almost impossible to know the answer to this question. However, here are visual and numerical breakdowns of the Kloppenburg-Prosser April results.
Prosser (the conservative candidate) received the majority of votes in the red counties, and the blue counties were carried by Kloppenburg (the liberal candidate). The next chart breaks down how each of the nine districts with state Senate seats up for recall voted in three high-profile races: the 2010 gubernatorial election, won by Walker; the 2008 presidential election, won by Obama; and the April 2011 Supreme Court race, won by Prosser.
What do these numbers mean?
- In the 2010 gubernatorial race where the GOP enjoyed a significant “enthusiasm gap,” Scott Walker carried eight of the nine recall districts: Cowles, Darling, Harsdorf, Holperin, Olsen, Hopper, Wirch and Hansen. Walker nearly carried all nine, but came up just short in Kapanke’s district.
- In the 2008 presidential race where Barack Obama crushed John McCain in Wisconsin, Obama carried all nine recall districts, illustrating his electoral strength on the eastern side of Wisconsin, which trends more Republican than the western half of Wisconsin, which is normally more Democratic.
- In the April 2011 Supreme Court race where voter turnout set an all-time record (1.5 million) for a court race, Prosser carried six of the nine recall districts, came close to winning in two districts (Harsdorf and Wirch) and lost one district (Kapanke) by a large margin.
The take away is this: all nine districts are susceptible to the prevailing political winds. If Democrats are hot (Obama 2008) these districts will vote Democratic. If the GOP is hot (Walker 2010), the districts will vote Republican. Prosser carried six districts and nearly one more.
So, is this good news for Republicans or Democrats? It’s risky to rely too heavily on the Kloppenburg-Prosser election model when predicting a potential outcome in the state Senate recalls, but consider this:
- Democrats and their union allies had the perfect storm of enthusiasm and outrage, and still lost.
- Prosser’s overall percentage of the vote was only 2 percent smaller than Scott Walker’s or Ron Johnson’s in 2010 (52.3 percent).
- Kloppenburg’s 49 percent of the vote was less impressive than first impressions. Kloppenburg started with 45 percent of the vote, not 25 percent. She won a left-of-center three-way primary.
-
A very closely divided state may not give Democrats enough muscle to flip three state Senate seats and retake the majority they held before last November because Republicans control the Senate by a healthy 19-14 majority.
History of Recalls
In the entire history of all 50 states, only 13 state legislators have ever been successfully recalled, including two from Wisconsin (George Petak in 1996 and Gary George in 2003).
It is possible that the unique circumstances and historic nature of the current Wisconsin recall elections could render these facts and figures irrelevant. Perhaps the political power of angry unions and equally motivated Democrats will be able to create the tsunami of rage and disappointment that will deliver a stinging rebuke to the GOP.
It didn’t happen in the Supreme Court race between Kloppenburg and Prosser, but the race was extremely tight. The state Senate recalls represent round two. My guess? There will be several very close elections in August.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.