The election year of 2012 is just around the corner. Wisconsin voters will go to the polls to vote for President, a new U.S. Senator, eight members of Congress, 16 state Senators and 99 members of the state Assembly. And there’s more. It’s very likely we will see more recall election activity involving Republican Governor Scott Walker and as many as five state Senators in targeted GOP districts who will become legally eligible for recall elections in 2012. Here’s a brief look at the coming elections for next year.
President
President Barack Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, carrying 59 of 72 counties. After extremely close presidential races in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin voted solidly for the Democratic ticket for President in 2008, with Obama winning 56 percent of the vote.
That’s likely to change in 2012. The race for President next year will probably look more like the close elections in 2000 and 2004 and the 2011 election for Wisconsin Supreme Court. In 2008, Obama had the wind at his back in Wisconsin after he soundly defeated Hillary Clinton in the February primary 58 to 41 percent. However in 2012, he will run as the incumbent with a record. Wisconsin’s status as a swing state will likely return with lots of attention from both sides as they compete for all 10 electoral votes.
U.S. Senate
After 24 years in the U.S. Senate, Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring. Given the current political environment and traditionally close elections for open seats, the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin should be very competitive and draw substantial national attention.
Unless another candidate enters the race on the Democratic side, it appears Madison Congresswomen Tammy Baldwin, D-WI, is the choice for Democrats next fall. Baldwin jumped into the race early and remains the only announced candidate on the Democratic ticket. Congressman Ron Kind from La Crosse decided against running and former Congressman Steve Kagen of Appleton has yet to officially declare his intentions.
The GOP side of the equation is a different story. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson is moving closer to a formal announcement, former Rep. Mark Neumann, R-WI, and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald have declared, and state Sen. Frank Lasee has signaled his intention to enter the race.
Political prognosticator Larry J. Sabato, a political scientist with the University of Virginia Center for Politics and publisher of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has placed the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin in the “tossup” category. The last time there was an open U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin was 1988, when Democrat Herb Kohl defeated Republican state Senator Susan Engeleiter 52 to 48 percent.
Congress
The current makeup of the Wisconsin congressional delegation is five Republicans and three Democrats. In November 2010, Wisconsin voters elected two new Republicans to Congress for the first time since 1974: GOP Reps. Sean Duffy from Weston and Reid Ribble from DePere. The Democrats are expected to mount strong challenges to both of these freshman incumbents with Duffy, the first Republican elected to Congress from the 7th District in 41 years, expecting the stiffest challenge.
Both Duffy and Ribble have announced opposition. Former Democratic state Senator Pat Kreitlow of Eau Claire has entered the race against Duffy and Jamie Wall, who finished second in the Democratic primary for Congress in 2006 in the 8th District, has entered the race against Ribble.
Pending any other surprise announcements, the only other significant development in the Wisconsin delegation will be the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in the Madison-based 2nd District. The winner of the Democratic primary election is virtually guaranteed to be the winner in November. The 2nd District is overwhelmingly Democratic. The three announced candidates on the Democratic side are state Reps. Mark Pocan and Kelda Helen Roys, and Dane County Treasurer Dave Worzala.
State Senate
Republicans now control the Wisconsin state senate 17-16, after recall organizers defeated two GOP Senators in the August 9 recall elections. This means the State Senate will likely remain in the hotbed of political activity in 2012. Public employee unions have strongly indicated their interest in recalling more GOP Senators in 2012.
The breakdown for the “normal” election cycle in the State Senate calls for six Republicans and ten Democrats to run again in 2012. With a one-seat GOP Majority, Republicans need to hold all their seats to maintain power. Thus, any recall activity that succeeds in removing Republican senators from office will flip control of the upper House to the Democrats. The unknown factor? How the redistricting plan passed by the Legislature in August will influence elections during the “normal” election cycle of 2012 and/or the possible recall elections in the Senate, should they materialize.
State Assembly
The current makeup of the State Assembly is 58 Republicans, 40 Democrats and one Independent. In November 2010, Republicans netted a 13 seat pickup to take a commanding majority of all seats in the Assembly. All 99 members are required to run every two years, unlike the State Senate where members have four-year terms.
The magnitude of the GOP victory in 2010 and the redistricting plan passed in August will make it very difficult for Democrats to regain power in 2012. While it’s possible for Democrats to chip away at the Assembly GOP majority through recall elections, it remains to be seen if the unions will mount recall attempts in the lower House.
Governor Walker Recall Election
The biggest question relating to a possible recall election of Republican Governor Scott Walker is when the recall election date will be set. The earliest possible date to begin legally collecting the 540,000 signatures required to force the election is November 4, 2011. Signature organizers will then have 60 days to reach their goal and begin the process to set a date for the actual recall election.
As you can see, the political table being set for 2012 is as complex as it is important, making your support for the REALTORS® Political Action Committee (RPAC) and the Direct Giver/Conduit program more important than ever. Watch for more updates on these races as we move closer to the 2012 election cycle in Wisconsin.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.