|
|
Wisconsin Housing Market Remains at Solid Levels
for First Quarter of 2004
Date: May 13, 2004
Contact: David E. Clark, Economist, C3 Statistical
Solutions Inc.
Office phone: 262-549-4992 | Cell phone: 414-803-6537
Madison - The Wisconsin housing market continued to
benefit from historically low mortgage rates in the first
quarter of 2004, with existing home sales nearly identical to
last year's record setting pace. According to the Wisconsin
REALTORS Association (WRA), home sales increased 0.1% over the
same quarter in 2003.
The latest REALTORS' figures show a seasonally adjusted total
of 28,925 homes were sold in the state between January and March
of 2004. The growth rate in home sales in the Midwest was modest
at 1.5%, whereas it was somewhat stronger (+7.2%) for the nation
as a whole over the same period.
While sales flattened, they remain at a high level. "This
leveling off of home sales is not surprising," said WRA Chairman
of the Board, Walter "Corky" Hellyer. "Over the last two years,
the housing market has been growing at a torrid pace, and it was
bound plateau sooner or later." He noted however that the
housing market in the state remains very strong. "That we
maintained our sales volume at last year's record setting pace
is an indication that sales activity remains very strong"
Hellyer said.
With Federal Reserve Chairman Allen Greenspan signaling that
interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months,
Hellyer suggested that we may actually see a small spike in
sales volume in the near future. "Last July when mortgage rates
went up temporarily, home sales actually increased in the state.
This is most likely the result of some buyers
'getting-off-the-fence' when rates ticked up. We may see that
happen again this year" said Hellyer.
First Quarter Regional Sales Data
The figures on regional sales volume derived from Multiple
Listing Service (MLS) data for Wisconsin counties were mixed.
Sales in some regions were above their Q1 2003 levels, some were
virtually unchanged, and others experienced modest decline.
Growth was strongest in the Northeast region, where home
sales continued grew at 2.2% in Q1 2004 as compared to the same
quarter last year. Within the region, there was a great deal of
variability. Activity in Marinette county was up significantly
(i.e., up 64%), although this is based on relatively low levels
in 2003. Also strong was Outagamie county, which grew at +15.7%.
Both Fon du Lac county and Winnebago county were up 6.8% over Q1
2003. More modest growth rates were recorded in Green Lake
county (+1.6%), and Door county was nearly unchanged (+1.7%).
Home sales in Waupaca county were down moderately (-4.3%) and
they fell 5.7% in Brown and Shawano counties. More significant
declines were seen in Calumet (-19.3%) and Oconto (-33.3%)
counties.
Sales volume in Q1 2004 in the Northern region remained above
its level of one year ago, growing at a modest 2.0%. Growth was
very strong in several small counties (i.e., Forest and Taylor
counties both experienced growth rates of 125% or higher, and
Iron county grew at 44.4%) but all of these counties had Q1 2003
sales volume in the single digits. More surprising was the
robust sales growth in some counties with higher volume.
Specifically, the combined Ashland/Bayfield counties were up 75%
in the first quarter of 2004 as compared to that same quarter
last year; Sawyer county grew at 35.7%; Rusk county experienced
an increase in sales of 29.4%; Polk county was up 19.2% and
Oneida county grew 19.1%. Burnett and Vilas counties were
unchanged from last year, whereas home sales fell in Price
county by 3.3% and they also declined in Barron county (-4.8%).
Finally, more substantial reductions in existing home sales were
found in Douglas (-29.4%), Washburn (-32.1%), Langlade (-40.5%)
and Lincoln (-41.0%) counties, although it should be noted that
all of these counties declined from sales volumes in the range
of 61 or fewer home sales in Q1 2003.
Home sales in the Western region were essentially flat,
growing just 0.6% in Q1 2004 over Q1 in the previous year.
However, there was substantial variability within the region
with some counties experiencing rapid growth, and others
declining. Buffalo, Pepin and Trempleau counties, which are
combined for reporting purposes, were up 59.1% although their Q1
2003 volume was only 22 home sales. However, several counties
with larger initial sales volume also experienced substantial
growth. Chippewa county grew at a solid pace (+10.9%) as did
Dunn (+7.6%) and Eau Claire (+6.4%) counties. La Crosse
maintained its Q1 2004 levels (+0.4%), whereas the counties on
the eastern edges of Minneapolis which have been red-hot over
the past several quarters, slid somewhat (i.e., St. Croix fell
12.3%, and Pierce declined 14.5%).
Also near its Q1 2003 volume was the Southeast region, where
sales fell slightly (-0.4%). Within the region, the results were
mixed however. Kenosha was up substantially (20.6%) as was
Racine (+16.3%). Also strong was Walworth county (+11.7%)
whereas Ozaukee county experienced only moderate growth (0.9%)
when compared to the first quarter last year. Several counties
experienced decline, with Milwaukee down 2% from its Q1 2003
pace; sales in Waukesha county counties were down 8.1% and they
declined 8.7% in Washington county. Finally, home sales slid
significantly (-23.1%) in Sheboygan county in the first quarter.
Existing home sales in the Central region were down 4.4% in
the first quarter of the year, with the majority of counties
that report home sales activity, experiencing negative growth.
Of the three counties experiencing positive growth for the
quarter, the only county that had initial sales volume in double
digits was Clark county which increased 9.1% (i.e., 11 sales in
Q1 2003 and 12 sales in Q1 2004). The three largest counties
experienced modest declines. Wood county fell 3.2%; Marathon and
Waushara counties both declined 6.5%; and Portage county dropped
6.7%.
Finally, the South Central region of the state was down 6.5%
in Q1 2004 compared to Q1 2003, with several counties reporting
solid growth. The most robust sales growth was in Sauk county
which grew 14.2% followed by Green county which was up 10.1%.
Also advancing was Columbia county (+9.2%), and Dodge county was
up 5.4% in Q1 2004 as compared to Q1 2003. Jefferson county was
up 3.9%. The two largest metropolitan counties in the region
fell somewhat substantially. Specifically, Dane county was down
9% and Rock county slid 17.4%.
First Quarter Median Housing Price Data
Home prices in the first quarter of the year experienced
healthy growth. As compared to Q1 2003, median home prices were
up a modest 2.3% to $140,000. "While prices have increased,
inventories have remained strong enough to keep Wisconsin's
housing quite affordable throughout the state," said WRA
President Bill Malkasian. "Thus, even if interest rates do begin
to rise in the near future, we are confident that the housing
market will be accessible to first-time buyers," said Malkasian.
He added, "housing continues to be the most important asset for
many families, so maintaining affordability is important".
Malkasian pointed to the most recent study of housing
affordability conducted by the National Association of REALTORS(
which continues to show the Midwest to have the most affordable
housing of all regions in the U.S.
Median housing prices rose in four of the six regions of the
state, with median home price appreciation between 2.6% and 4.3%
in those regions. The Western region was essentially unchanged
(-0.3%), and the Central region experienced a decline in Q1 2004
as compared to Q1 2003, with the reduction in median home prices
modest (-3.3%). T
The strongest regional appreciation rate was in the North
region which saw median prices increase 4.3% to $118,200. Within
the region, median home prices rose by 50% to $150,000 in
Ashland and Bayfield counties, which are combined for reporting
purposes. In addition, very strong median price appreciation
occurred in Sawyer county (+36.4% to $150,000), and Vilas county
(+24.5% to $186,700). One must exercise some caution in
interpreting these results. While it is possible that the
typical home appreciated at this rate, a likely factor
contributing to this large increase in the median sale prices is
that the mix of homes sold in this quarter shifted to either
larger homes, or homes in more desirable locations when compared
to Q1 2003. Also recording solid price growth in quarter over
quarter comparisons were the counties of Burnett (+15.6% to
$115,600), Rusk (+13.5% to $70,000), Lincoln (+8.3% to $85,000),
Barron (+7.7 to $107,700) and Langlade (+6.9% to $86,400).
Median prices were unchanged in Price county at $75,000.
However, several counties experienced reductions in median
prices, with prices falling modestly in Polk (-4.6% to
$130,000), Washburn (-5.6% to $123,700) and Oneida (-10% to
$120,000) counties. Median prices fell more substantially in
Douglas (-27.3% to $80,000) county, although it should be noted
that the price change in this county is based on relatively low
volume of sales in both Q1 2003 and Q1 2004.
Appreciating almost as fast was the South Central region,
with median prices increasing 3.9% to $158,300. All reporting
counties experienced median price growth. Within the region, the
largest increase between the first quarter 2003 and the first
quarter of 2004 was in Dodge county where median prices
increased 12.9% to $118,900. This was followed by Jefferson
(+8.6% to $149,100) and Sauk counties (+8% to $135,600). In the
5% range was Columbia county (+5.3% to $137,800), Green county
(+5.3% to $111,400) and Dane county which saw prices increase 5%
to $186,700 over the period. Finally, Rock county median prices
increased 3.6% to $106,200.
The Northeast region grew at a similar pace (+3.8% to
$124,600). Interestingly, this region also experienced the
strongest growth in home sales. Within the region, Green Lake
county increased 40.7% to $124,800, on solid volume. Again, it
is possible that the median house in Q1 2004 is qualitatively
different from the median home that sold in the previous year
for counties that show rapid price appreciation. Strong median
home price appreciation was also found in the combined Door and
Kewaunee counties (+15.3 to $148,900) and Oconto county (+14% to
$130,000). Also growing were three of the relatively large urban
counties in the region (Winnebago county was up 6.8% to
$121,400, Brown county rose 6.6% to $136,900, and Outagamie
county increased 3.2% to $130,700). Median prices in Waupaca
rose 3.1% to $89.400; they increased 2.9% to $66,900 in
Marinette county, and they increased 2.1% to $88,000 in Shawano
county. The median prices in the first quarter 2004 as compared
to the same quarter last year were up slightly in Calumet county
(+1.3% to $153,300) while prices fell 6.5% to $98,600 in Fond du
Lac county.
Median prices in the Southeast region grew at 2.6% to
$147,300 between Q1 2003 and Q1 2004. Although all counties
experienced median price growth, the magnitude of the price
appreciation varied substantially within the region. The
strongest growth rate was found in Waukesha county (+11.1% to
$225,000) followed closely by Washington county (+10.8% to
$188,300) and Racine county (+7.7% to $129,200). Quarter over
quarter median prices rose by 6.1% to $223,500 in Ozaukee
county, and they were up 4.2% to $117,600 in Sheboygan county,
and also 4.2% to $150,000 in Walworth county. Finally, several
counties grew more modestly, including Kenosha (+2.8% to
$140,000) and Milwaukee (+1.8% to $123,500) counties.
The West region which has witnessed strong median price
appreciation over the last two years, moderated somewhat, and
saw median prices fall slightly (-0.3% to $132,900). Most areas
experienced growth in median prices with the strongest growth
seen in Eau Claire county (+9% to $124,400) followed closely by
the combined Buffalo/Pepin/Trempeleau area (+7.9% to $82,400).
Comparing Q1 2004 with Q1 2003, median prices rose 6.2% to
$107,300 in Chippewa county, and they advanced 3.7% to $172,300
in Pierce county. Finally, median prices increased 1.7% to
$178,700 in St. Croix county, and they were flat in LaCrosse
county (+0.4% to $116,900). The only county to experience
decline was Dunn county, which slid 6.1% to $131,400 in the
quarter.
Finally, median prices fell slightly in the Central region.
Comparing the prices in the first quarter of 2004 with those in
that same quarter last year, median prices fell 3.3% to $105,000
in the region. Within the area, Clark county rose 13.2% to
$65,000 albeit on small volume in both quarters. Median prices
in Waushara county increased 4.4% to $90,700 and they were up
2.8% to $118,600 in Marathon county. In contrast, they fell 4.1%
in Portage county to $113,800, and they declined more
substantially in Wood county (-20% to $80,000).
The Wisconsin REALTORSŪ Association is one of
the largest trade associations in the state, representing over
12,000 real estate brokers, sales people and affiliates
statewide. Sales estimates for the state are provided by the
National Association of REALTORSŪ which seasonally adjusts
quarterly sales figures. All county figures on sales volume and
median prices are compiled by the Wisconsin REALTORSŪ
Association and are not seasonally adjusted. Median prices are
only computed if the county recorded at least 10 home sales in
the quarter.
*A computational error was detected which influenced a number
of the sales volume and median price estimates. That error has
been corrected in this revision.
* Note that the median
prices in the entire South Central region are shown to grow at a
slightly slower pace than any of the reporting counties. This
anomaly is due to minor interpolation errors in the method in
which median prices are estimated from summary data obtained
from the individual MLS organizations.
Please note: a detailed summary of housing statistics can
be downloaded below.
Wisconsin
Housing Statistics Online
|
Printable Copy of this Press Release