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2006
Home Sales Volume Second Highest on Record
Date: February 15, 2007
For More Information Contact: David E. Clark, Economist
C3 Statistical Solutions Inc.
Office phone: 414-803-6537
Madison - Wisconsin’s
housing market posted the second strongest year on record in
2006, despite modest signs of cooling in the fourth quarter,
according to the most recent analysis of statewide existing
home sales conducted by the Wisconsin REALTORS®
Association (WRA). Sales of existing homes in Wisconsin for the
fourth quarter of 2006 totaled 28,475 units on a
seasonally-adjusted basis, which is just six percent below the
all time record pace set in Q4 2005. Wisconsin’s decline in the
fourth quarter of 2006 was smaller than that of the Midwest
region, which fell 8.6 percent, and also the nation, which
declined 10.1 percent over the period.
“Given that the fourth quarter of 2005 was an all time record
quarter, to trail that pace by just 6 percentage points is
strong evidence that the housing market in the state remains
healthy,” said WRA Chairman Roger Rushman. He also indicated
that there is reason for optimism. “With state unemployment
rates remaining in the range of 4.7 percent, more than 60,000
jobs in the state over the past year and 30-year conventional
mortgages at 6.14 percent in December, the economy should
continue to support a solid housing market in Wisconsin in
2007,” said Rushman.
Fourth Quarter Regional Sales Data
Comparing the
record volumes seen in the fourth quarter of 2005 with the
fourth quarter of this year, all regions in the state
experienced some reduction in existing home sales volume. While
the Northeast region was only down slightly, falling just 0.7
percent, the remaining regions dropped between 5.8 percent and
10.7 percent. Specifically, as compared to Q4 2005, home sales
fell 5.8 percent in the Central region and dropped 8.6 percent
in the Western part of the state for Q4 2006. The Northern
region dropped 9.4 percent; the South Central region was off
its Q4 2005 pace by 10.6 percent; and existing home sales fell
10.7 percent in the Southeast region.
The Northeast
region remained very close to the solid housing sales for Q4
2005, with sales volumes essentially flat over the period (-0.7
percent). Several counties saw strong gains, including Kewaunee
County (+46.7 percent) on modest volume, whereas Calumet County
was up 44.8 percent on solid volume in the fourth quarter of
2005, and Green Lake County grew 21.4 percent also on solid
initial home sales volume. Two of the relatively larger urban
counties in the region were up moderately. Fond du Lac County
rose 6.7 percent and Outagamie County was up 2.6 percent.
Likewise, Manitowoc County, which had initial sales of 185
units in Q4 2005, rose 2.7 percent in that same quarter in
2006. Finally, Brown County was nearly unchanged for the
period, up 0.5 percent. However, a number of counties saw their
sales volume fall in the fourth quarter of 2006 as compared to
the levels established in the fourth quarter of 2005. Oconto
County dropped 3.9 percent and Marinette County fell 7.8
percent although collectively these two counties lost just 11
sales over the period. Existing home sales in Winnebago County
fell 10 percent, and they dropped 10.2 percent in Shawano
County and 11.7 percent in Waupaca County. Door County was off
its strong Q4 2005 pace by slightly more (-15.4 percent) and
sales were down 16.7 percent in Menominee County, but on
initial volume of just six units.
Home sales in the
Central region fell 5.8 percent in Q4 2006 as compared to the
same quarter in 2005. While Adams County grew 9.1 percent, that
was just one additional home sale for the period. In contrast,
the largest county in the region is Marathon County, and it saw
sales volume grow slightly (+1.9 percent) in the fourth
quarter. Two other counties experienced modest declines on
small initial volume. Sales fell from two to one in Juneau
County, and they dropped 6.5 percent from 31 to 29 units in
Clark County. However, three counties with modest sales saw
their existing home sales fall between 10.8 and 12.9 percent.
Portage County dropped 10.8 percent, Wood County fell 12.5
percent and Waushara County was down slightly more at 12.9
percent.
The existing home
sales fell 8.6 percent in the West region in the fourth quarter
of 2006 as compared to the strong fourth quarter of 2005.
Within the region, two counties experienced home sales on par
with Q4 2005. Pierce County saw its home sales grow 2.4 percent
and they were up 2 percent in La Crosse County. However, they
fell 6.9 percent in St. Croix County, which until last year had
been red hot, and they were down 8.9 percent in Chippewa
County. Home sales fell 12 percent in Buffalo, Trempeleau and
Pepin counties, which report their sales jointly; they declined
16.7 percent in Vernon County on small initial sales; they
dropped 18.5 percent in Eau Claire County; and they were down
21.2 percent in Dunn County on moderate initial sales volume.
The sales volume
in the North region fell 9.4 percent in Q4 2006 as compared to
the same quarter in 2005. Within the region the record is
mixed, which is not uncommon for a region with a sizeable
second-home market. While Florence County showed 300 percent
growth, this amounted to just three additional sales in the
fourth quarter of 2006. However, several counties saw their
sales volume grow off of more solid sales volume. Specifically,
Douglas County was up 16.7 percent on modest volume; one of the
larger counties in the region (Oneida County) was up 11.5
percent; Langlade County rose 9.5 percent; Taylor County
increased 6.3 percent; and Burnett County was up 5.6 percent
for the period. However, a number of counties experienced a
decline in volume. While Price County was essentially unchanged
(-1.3 percent), the remaining areas in the region fell by more
substantial margins. For example, Lincoln County fell 9.8
percent; Barron County dropped 10.4 percent; Vilas County was
down 14.3 percent; Ashland and Bayfield counties, which are
combined for reporting purposes, dropped 14.5 percent; and Polk
County fell 15 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 as
compared to that same quarter in 2005. The remaining counties
were off their Q4 2005 pace by 20 percent or more.
Specifically, home sales volume in Rusk County fell 20 percent,
and sales fell 22.6 percent in Iron County and 22.7 percent in
Forest County. Finally, existing sales slid 35 percent in
Washburn County and they dropped 42.9 percent in Sawyer County.
Both of these counties had sales in the 80’s in the fourth
quarter of 2005.
Existing home
sales in the South Central region were down 10.6 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2006 as compared to the high level of home
sales during that same quarter in 2005. A number of counties
saw their home sales rise over the period, including Richland
County, which more than doubled its sales (+122.2 percent), and
Lafayette County, which increased 44.4 percent, both on initial
volume of nine homes sold in Q4 2005. Also up was Grant County
(+11.3 percent) on more substantial initial volume. In
contrast, most counties in the region experienced some
reduction in home sales. For several counties, the reduction
was modest. This includes Dodge County (-2.3 percent) and
Columbia County (-4.4 percent). However, the reduction was more
substantial in Sauk County (-7.1 percent) and Crawford County
(-8.3 percent on slight initial volume). Finally, a number of
counties saw their sales activity fall by double digits. Rock
County dropped 10.6 percent; Dane County was down 13.1 percent;
Jefferson County fell 14.2 percent; Iowa County dropped 20.8
percent; and finally, Green County slid 25.3 percent in Q4 2006
as compared to the same quarter in 2005.
Similar to the
performance in the South Central region, sales volume in the
Southeast region fell 10.7 percent in the final quarter of 2006
when compared to the fourth quarter of 2005. All counties
experienced some decline in sales volume. Reductions were
modest in Waukesha County (-4.2 percent) and Washington County
(-5.3 percent), but they fell more substantially in Milwaukee
County (-9.4 percent) and they were down by double digits in
the remaining counties in the region. Specifically, existing
home sales fell 13.9 percent in Ozaukee County; they dropped
14.5 percent in Racine County; sales declined 16.6 percent in
Kenosha County; and they fell 17.2 percent in Sheboygan County
over the period. Finally, comparing Q4 2006 with Q4 2005,
Walworth County declined 19.7 percent.
Fourth Quarter Median Housing Price Data
Statewide home prices in the fourth quarter of the year fell
slightly according to the REALTORS®’ report. As
compared to the fourth quarter of 2005, median home prices
statewide dropped just 1.2 percent to $160,000, with three of
the state’s six regions showing slight increases, one region
remaining unchanged, and two regions showing small decreases.
“Again, Wisconsin did better than the Midwest region and the
nation,” said WRA President William Malkasian. “The median
prices for single-family homes fell 2.7 percent nationwide, and
they dropped 4.2 percent in the Midwest,” Malkasian said,
citing recently released figures from the National Association
of REALTORS®. “Moderating home prices represent a
real opportunity for buyers,” noted Malkasian. “With mortgage
rates near historically low levels and a solid statewide
economy this is a great time for new buyers to get into this
market,” he said.
The South Central region saw median
prices rise 3.3 percent to $181,800 in the fourth quarter of
2006 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2005. Within the
region, the strongest increase in median prices was found in
Iowa County where prices rose 17 percent to $154,500 on modest
volume. Also up by double-digits was Crawford County (+15.8
percent to $110,000) on relatively low volume of homes sold,
and Green County, which grew 13.6 percent to $161,300 on more
substantial sales volume. Also up by solid margins were
Columbia County (+9.9 percent to $172,500), Rock County (+9.5
percent to $130,000) and Jefferson County (+7.4 percent to
$173,300). Median prices in Sauk County grew 2.1 percent to
$158,300 and they were up slightly in Dane County (+0.9 percent
to $222,000). Median prices fell 7.2 percent to $127,100 in
Dodge County, and they dropped 8.2 percent to $98,900 in Grant
County.
Median prices in the Northeast
region were up 1.6 percent to $132,900 in the fourth quarter of
2006 relative to the same quarter in 2005, with median price
changes modest in most counties. One exception was Manitowoc
County, which experienced very strong median price appreciation
(+18.3 percent to $102,900) even as the sales volume rose
nearly 3 percent. Clearly, demand conditions remain solid in
the county. Also up was Outagamie County (+7 percent to
$140,000), again on a modest increase in sales volume over the
period. A number of counties saw their median prices rise while
their volumes fell over the period. Specifically, the median
price in Marinette County rose 6.5 percent to $91,200; prices
increased 3.6 percent to $229,400 in Door County; median prices
appreciated 2.5 percent to $120,000 in Waupaca County; and they
rose 2.4 percent to $126,200 in Winnebago County. Median prices
were essentially flat to slightly down in the counties of Fond
du Lac (+0.3 percent to $117,600), Calumet (-0.7 percent to
$153,600) and Brown (-1 percent to $146,200). A slightly higher
reduction in the median price was found in Green Lake County
(-4.5 percent to $118,800), which likely prompted sales to rise
more than 20 percent over the period. Likewise, the 14 percent
reduction in the median price in Kewaunee County to $90,000
also likely stimulated the sales volume, which rose 46.7
percent over the period on modest sales volume. Finally, the
median price in Shawano County fell 6.5 percent to $102,900 and
Oconto County experienced a median sales price reduction of
11.5 percent to $113,300 in the fourth quarter of 2006 as
compared to that same quarter in 2005.
The median price in the West region
increased slightly (+0.3 percent) to $155,000 in Q4 2006 as
compared to Q4 2005. There was considerable county variability
within the region, with some counties experiencing increases in
their median price and others declining. The strongest median
price appreciation was seen in La Crosse County where the
median price rose 9.5 percent to $144,300. It is interesting to
note that volume was also up slightly in the county, suggesting
that relatively strong demand conditions have likely pushed
median prices up over the period. Two other counties
experienced solid median price growth. Prices in Chippewa
County grew 5.1 percent to $128,000 and Dunn County median
prices were up 4.3 percent to $151,700 in the fourth quarter.
Both of these counties saw sales volume fall, implying that
higher prices have had a dampening effect on demand. Both
Pierce County (+0.4 percent to $186,700) and St. Croix County
(-1.3 percent to $191,700) experienced very small changes in
their median prices, and Eau Claire County was off its Q4 2005
pace somewhat more (-5.8 percent to $130,700). Finally, the
combined Buffalo, Trempeleau and Pepin Counties saw their
median sales price fall 24.9 percent to $88,200. Given the
strong prevalence of second homes in this market, it is
undoubtedly the case that the mix of homes that sold in Q4 2006
was qualitatively different from those that sold in that same
quarter in 2005.
The median home sale price in the
Southeast region was unchanged at $176,400 in the final quarter
of 2006 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2005. Two counties
saw their median prices rise modestly over the period. The
median price rose 2.8 percent to $194,500 in Walworth County
and was up 1.4 percent to $156,000 in Milwaukee County in the
fourth quarter. The remaining counties experienced median price
reductions ranging from 1.2 percent to 8.1 percent. Four
counties were down less than 3 percent over the period.
Specifically, the median price fell 1.2 percent to $155,000 in
Racine County; it dropped 2.1 percent to $137,100 in Sheboygan
County; median prices declined 2.2 percent to $169,100 in
Kenosha County; and they were down 2.3 percent to $242,000 in
Waukesha County. The two counties that had their median price
fall more than 6 percent were the two northern counties in the
Milwaukee metropolitan area. The median price in Washington
County was down 6.7 percent to $198,200 and it fell 8.1 percent
to $225,000 in Ozaukee County. In both of these areas sales
volume was down over the same period, suggesting that demand
conditions have weakened over the past year in both counties.
Median prices in the Central region
were down very slightly, just 0.2 percent to $122,900 in the
fourth quarter of 2006 as compared to that same quarter in
2005. The strongest county in the region was Adams County where
median prices rose 6.7 percent to $160,000. While Adams County
has relatively low volume, two other counties with a more
significant population base also experienced growth in their
median price. Specifically, the median price in Wood County
grew 4.5 percent to $100,000 and Portage County was up 1
percent to $135,700. The largest county in the region, Marathon
County, was down slightly (-0.7 percent to $132,000), and
Waushara County fell more substantially (-6.6 percent to
$125,000). Finally, the largest median price decline was seen
in Clark County, where the median price dropped 28.7 percent to
$65,000. This county has a moderate level of volume (29 units
in Q4 2006) and it is unlikely that the mix of homes that sold
remained constant over the period. Rather, it is likely that at
least part of the reason for the price reduction in Clark
County is that homes that sold in the fourth quarter of 2006
were generally smaller or perhaps in less desirable locations
than those that sold in Q4 of 2005.
The largest median price reduction among the
six broad regions of the state was found in the North region,
where the median price dropped 3.8 percent to $125,000 between
Q4 2005 and Q4 2006. As is often the case, countywide median
price variability is somewhat pronounced in the North since it
has large numbers of second homes in addition to primary
residences. The most recent quarter is no exception, where
several counties saw median prices grow by double digits and
others experienced similarly sized reductions in their median
price over the period. The largest increase in the median price
was found in Iron County, where the median sales price was up
60.1 percent to $98,000. This was followed by Langlade County,
which was up 28.6 percent to $78,300, and Price County, which
grew 26.3 percent to $68,200. Also strong were Taylor County
(+20.6 percent to $135,000) and Douglas County (+14.7 percent
to $130,000), both on volume under 30 units in Q4 2006. In
addition, solid median price growth on slightly higher volume
was seen in Ashland and Bayfield counties, which are combined
for reporting purposes (+9.3 percent to $117,500), and also
Rusk County (+6.7 percent to $106,700). Median prices were
relatively flat in Polk County (+1 percent to $154,500) and
also in Barron County (-1.4 percent to $127,300). Two of the
larger counties in the region experienced moderate reductions
in median prices. That is, Vilas County dropped 5.3 percent to
$162,900 and prices were down 5.4 percent to $132,500 in Oneida
County. Two modestly sized counties also had relatively large
median price reductions. Burnett County was down 7.4 percent to
$122,200 and median prices were down 8.3 percent to $88,900 in
Lincoln County. Finally, three counties saw their median prices
fall more than 20 percent over the period. Washburn County fell
22.5 percent to $143,300 even as its volume slid 35 percent and
similarly, Sawyer County fell 27.9 percent to $146,700 and its
sales volume in Q4 2006 was off the Q4 2005 pace by almost 43
percent. Finally, Forest County experienced a 33.4 percent
reduction in the median home price to $73,300 while its volume
fell about 23 percent. These findings point to the volatility
of second home markets in the region.
The Wisconsin REALTORS® Association is one of the largest
trade associations in the state, representing over 17,000 real
estate brokers, sales people and affiliates statewide. Sales
estimates for the state are provided by the National Association
of REALTORS® which seasonally adjusts quarterly sales figures.
All county figures on sales volume and median prices are
compiled by the Wisconsin REALTORS® Association and are not
seasonally adjusted. Median prices are only computed if the
county recorded at least 10 home sales in the quarter.
Q4 comparison from 2005 and 2006 Spreadsheet
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