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Wisconsin Home Sales Moderate
in First Quarter
Date: May 15, 2007
For More Information Contact: David E. Clark, Economist
C3 Statistical Solutions Inc.
Office phone: 414-803-6537
Madison - Wisconsin’s housing market remains solid
despite signs of moderating sales,
according to recent figures released by the Wisconsin REALTORS®
Association (WRA). Home sales fell
6.5 percent for the first quarter of 2007, down from record
highs set last year at this time, but
experts say the market is still among the strongest in
Wisconsin’s history. “The Wisconsin housing market may have
softened, but to keep things in perspective this is the third
best first quarter we’ve ever had,” said WRA Chairman Roger
Rushman. “To be within 7 percent of last year’s record volume
is impressive,” he added. Rushman also suggested that that the
fundamentals in the state economy remain solid, with
unemployment essentially unchanged
over the past year, and more than 32,000 new jobs in the state
since the first quarter of 2006, which bodes well for the
Wisconsin real estate market.
First Quarter Regional Sales Data
Comparing the first quarter of 2007 with the same quarter last
year, existing home sales were
up 5.9 percent in the West region, they were essentially
unchanged in the Northeast region and
they fell just 1.9 percent in the Central region. However,
sales volume fell 5.9 percent in the
South Central region, it dropped 7.8 percent in the
Southeastern region, and it was off its Q1
2006 pace by 10.6 percent in the more
volatile Northern region, which is characterized by a mix
of primary and secondary residences.
The Western region posted healthy growth, with sales volume in
the first quarter of 2007 up
5.9 percent over that same quarter last year. Within the region
growth was strongest (+20
percent) in Pierce County, which is a suburban county in the
Minneapolis metropolitan area.
Also strong was Eau Claire County (+11.9 percent) on solid
sales volume, as well as another
Minneapolis suburban county, St. Croix County (+8 percent).
Modest growth was seen in Dunn
County, which increased 4.1 percent followed by Buffalo, Pepin
and Trempeleau counties (+3.3 percent), which are combined for
reporting purposes. La Crosse County was up slightly (+0.8
percent), and Monroe County was unchanged on minimal volume.
Sales fell slightly (-4.6 percent) in Chippewa County, although
this represents just five fewer sales in the first quarter of
2007 as compared to the first quarter of 2006. Likewise, even
though Vernon County saw its volume drop 50 percent, this
represented just two fewer sales in Q1 2007 relative to Q1
2006.
The
Northeast region was within four home sales of its first
quarter 2006 levels, falling just
0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to the
first quarter of 2006. Within the
region there was considerable volatility over the period.
Several counties were up by double digits.
The strongest growth in the region was Green
Lake County, which grew 78.8 percent on moderate volume. Two
other counties were up 50 percent over last year. Menominee
County grew 50 percent on very slight volume (i.e., growing
from two to three units sold), but Fond
du Lac County also rose 50 percent on more
solid sales volume, with 56 additional sales in Q1 2007 as
compared to that recorded in Q1 2006. Calumet County was up
23.6 percent, and Marinette County increased 15 percent, both
on solid sales volume. More modest growth was seen in Shawano
County (+4.7 percent) and also in Manitowoc County (+3.7
percent), whereas sales were
unchanged in Oconto County. However, several counties
experienced reductions in sales
volume. Brown County fell 2.4 percent; Outagamie County
declined 5.2 percent; Waupaca County
dropped 9.4 percent; and Winnebago slid 13.6 percent in Q1 2007
as compared to the same quarter last year. Finally, the sales
volume reductions were strongest in Kewaunee County (-21.4
percent) and Door County (-27.9 percent).
The Central region was down just 1.9 percent in sales volume of
existing homes for Q1 2007
compared to Q1 2006. Two small rural counties experienced very
strong growth, albeit off
of modest sales volume in the first quarter of 2006 – Clark
County was up 73.7 percent, and
Adams County grew 36.4 percent. However, growth was also seen
in two counties with more
significant home sales last year. Wood County was up 5.1
percent, and existing home sales
grew 2.3 percent in Portage County over the period. The largest
county in the region, Marathon County, fell 7.5 percent, and
Waushara County was down 31.6 percent.
The
South Central region was down 5.9 percent in Q1 2007 as
compared to Q1 2006. Again,
there was considerable volatility, especially in smaller rural
counties. Solid growth was seen
in Sauk County, where sales were up 13.1 percent over the
period on solid volume. Also up
by a healthy margin was Grant County, where existing home sales
increased 6.1 percent on
moderate volume. Home sales were unchanged in Dodge County, and
they fell at modest rates in the two
largest counties in the region, Dane County (-4.5 percent) and
Rock County (-6.4 percent). Jefferson
County was down 5.5 percent from the levels established last
year. Green County saw its sales volume drop 10.7 percent, and
sales volume was down 19 percent in Iowa County and 21.1
percent in Columbia County. Finally, reductions in sales volume
were most dramatic in the smallest counties in the region.
Sales volume dropped 43.8 percent in
Lafayette County, 66.7 percent in Crawford County, and 73.3
percent in Richland County. Note that each of these counties
only sold between 15 and 16 homes in the first quarter of 2006.
In the Southeast region, sales volume fell
7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to that
same quarter in 2006. Two of the suburban metropolitan
Milwaukee counties were up by healthy margins, with sales in
Ozaukee County up 12.4 percent, and sales rising 10.5 percent
in Washington County. All other counties in the region were
down, with the reductions modest in Waukesha County (-3.9
percent) and also in Racine County (-6.6 percent). However, the
decline was more substantial in four counties. Specifically,
sales fell 11.7 percent in Milwaukee County; they dropped 11.9
percent in Walworth County; they declined 12.6 percent in
Kenosha County; and they slid 15 percent in Sheboygan County.
Finally, existing home sales fell 10.6 percent in the North
region in the first quarter of 2007 relative to the first
quarter in 2006. Given the predominance of vacation homes in
this region, a few counties were up significantly, but most
experienced a decline in volume, with some reductions
significant. The strongest growth was seen in Taylor County,
which grew 63.6 percent, although this adds just seven homes to
the 11 that sold in Q1 2006. This was followed by Douglas
County (+12.4 percent), also on small initial sales volume.
Also up were Lincoln County (+6.8 percent) and Sawyer County
(+2.4 percent) on modest sales volume. Oneida County was
unchanged over the period, whereas Burnett County was down
slightly (-2.2 percent); Vilas County dropped 6.1 percent on
solid volume; and Rusk County dropped 8.7 percent. Finally, the
remaining counties fell by more than 10 percent. Specifically,
Forest County fell 12.5 percent, Langlade County was off its Q1
2006 pace by 14.9 percent; Price County was down by 15.8
percent; Polk County fell 19.2 percent; Washburn dropped 20.5
percent; Florence County was down 25 percent (although this was
just one fewer home sold); and Iron County was off its Q1 2006
pace by 25 percent. Barron County was down 28.7 percent and
home sales in the counties of Ashland and Bayfield, which
report their sales collectively, were down 28.9 percent.
First Quarter Median Housing Price Data
Home prices in the first quarter rose a modest 1.1 percent to
$160,000 according to the REALTORS®’
report. Across the state, median prices increased in five of
the six regions and were down only slightly in one region.
“Seeing homes maintain the value built up over the long
expansion is a healthy sign,” said WRA President William
Malkasian. “This represents a good time for new buyers to get
into this market, given that 30-year conventional mortgage
rates have fallen more than half a percent since July
of last year, and home inventories are up in
many areas of the state,” he noted. “With the most recent
figures from the National Association of REALTORS® showing
slight reductions in home prices in all regions of the country
including the Midwest, this is an indication that Wisconsin
housing remains a
good way to build and maintain wealth,” said Malkasian.
The Northern region saw its median prices grow 6.3 percent to
$122,200 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the first
quarter of 2006. Given the mix of primary and secondary homes
that sell in this region, median prices are sometimes volatile
as the mix of homes changes from quarter to quarter, and the
most recent period is no exception. Numerous counties
experienced significant increases in their median prices. For
example, the median price rose 56.7 percent to $156,700 in
Douglas County and it was up 36.9 percent to $153,300 in Vilas
County. In each of these counties, it is likely that the homes
that sold in Q1 2007 were qualitatively different (e.g., larger
or in a more desirable location) from those that sold in Q1
2006. Also strong were Price County (+25 percent to $70,000);
the combined Ashland/Bayfield counties (+23.1 percent to
$120,000); Barron County (+15.4 percent to
$138,500); Polk County (+9.7 percent to $148,900); and Oneida
County (+8.9 percent to $112,500). In contrast, the remaining
counties saw their median prices fall somewhat. For a number of
counties, the declines were modest. For example, median prices
fell 1.2 percent to $88,900 in Forest County; they dropped a
modest 2 percent to $67,700 in Langlade County; and they slid
2.9 percent to $120,000 in Taylor County. Slightly higher
reductions were seen in Sawyer County (-4.8 percent to
$170,000) and Rusk County (-6.4 percent to $82,200). However,
the median price declines were more pronounced in four
counties. The median priced home was 11.1 percent lower
($80,000) in Iron County in Q1 2007 as compared to Q1 2006; it
was 19.7 percent lower to $156,000 in Washburn County; it fell
26.4 percent to $88,300 in Lincoln County; and it dropped 29.1
percent to $95,000 in Burnett County. Again,
while some of these steep median price reductions may result
from discounting by sellers, dramatic changes in the median
price also likely reflect the same type of qualitative changes
that would account for strong positive price growth in other
counties.
The Central region experienced a 3.8 percent increase in median
prices to $120,000 in the first quarter of 2007 relative to the
first quarter of 2006. Two of the smaller counties in the
region saw their median prices rise substantially.
Specifically, median prices rose 81.1 percent to $117,700 in
Adams County and they were up 18.2 percent to $85,000 in Clark
County. Both of these areas experienced strong increases in
sales, off of relatively small volume, suggesting that demand
pressures are strong. Nonetheless, it is likely that the mix of
homes was qualitatively different as well, which also
contributed to the increased median price. The remaining
counties showed more modest changes in their median prices. For
example, Waushara County was up 7.2 percent to $102,900, median
prices increased 4.4
percent to $90,000 in Wood County, and they rose 3.6 percent to
$134,700 in the largest county in the region, Marathon County.
Finally, the median price was down slightly (-0.4 percent) to
$126,200 in Portage County.
The Southeast region saw its median prices increase 2.4 percent
to $176,900 in Q1 2007 as compared to Q1 2006. Within the
region, the strongest growth in prices was seen in Racine
County (+6.2 percent to $156,900) followed closely by Walworth
County (+6.1 percent to $193,300). More modest increases were
found in Milwaukee County, where the median price rose 3.5
percent to $158,600, as well as Sheboygan County, where median
price increases were 2.6 percent to $130,000. The remaining
counties were either flat, or down slightly. For example,
Kenosha County was virtually unchanged (-0.2 percent to
$162,400) as was Ozaukee County (-0.3 percent to $232,600). The
median price in Washington County fell 1.2 percent to $200,000
and it declined 4.3 percent to $245,200 in Waukesha County.
The South Central Region witnessed a 2 percent increase in the
median price to $178,000 over the Q1 2006 to Q1 2007 period.
While one of the smaller counties, Iowa County experienced a
very large increase in its median price (+24.6 percent to
$156,700), undoubtedly due in part to a shift in the mix of
homes sold; the changes were much lower in the remaining
counties. In positive territory were Jefferson County (+6
percent to $171,700), Rock County (+4.4 percent to $125,300),
Grant County (+3.1 percent to $105,200) and Dane County (+0.7
percent to $216,100). However, several counties saw their
median prices fall. Specifically, Green County was down 1.6
percent to $135,300; Columbia County fell 3.1 percent to
$155,000; Dodge County dropped 4.2 percent to $129,000; and
Sauk County was down 8.1 percent to $147,100. Given that Sauk
County volume rose more than 13 percent over the period, it is
likely that some price discounting stimulated those sales.
The
Western region experienced a 1.1 percent median price increase
to $151,700 in the first quarter of 2007 as compared to the
first quarter of 2006. The two counties with the strongest
median price appreciation were Chippewa County (+6.3 percent to
$136,000) and Eau Claire County (+6.3 percent to $138,900).
Moderate median price growth was found in St. Croix County,
where prices were up 1.1 percent to $198,200. La Crosse County
saw its median price fall slightly (-0.8 percent) to $133,300
and the median price dropped by modest margins in Dunn County
(-3.3 percent to $138,800) and Pierce County (-4.9 percent to
$178,200). The most significant median price reduction was
found in Buffalo, Trempeleau and Pepin counties, which report
their sales activity jointly, where median prices fell 25.6
percent to $93,800. This most certainly results in part from a
qualitative change in the mix of homes
that sold between the first quarter of 2006
and that same period in 2007.
Finally, the only region to experience a reduction in the
median price was the Northeast region, where median prices fell
3.5 percent to $128,300 between Q1 2006 and Q1 2007. Within the
region, several counties saw their
median prices rise significantly over the period. Most dramatic
was Kewaunee County, where prices more than doubled (+106.6
percent) to $165,300, although this increase was on volume less
than 15 units in either the first quarter of 2006 or 2007. In
contrast, Oconto County saw its median price rise 26.4 percent
to $134,000 on solid volume in both quarters, and Fond du Lac
County was up 10.6 percent to $121,700, even as the sales
volume rose substantially (+50%) over the period.
This suggests strong demand conditions in
Fond du Lac County. More moderate increases in median prices
were seen in Manitowoc County (+4.3 percent to $92,000) and
Winnebago County (+3 percent to $127,700). The remaining
counties in the region experienced some reduction in median
prices. For example, the reduction in
median prices were minor in Calumet County (-0.8 percent to
$153,700) and they fell modestly in three other counties –
Marinette County was down 2.4 percent to $70,000, Brown County
was down 3.6 percent to $145,300, and Door County fell 4.4
percent to $228,100. Slightly higher reductions in median
prices over the period were seen in Green Lake County (-7.1
percent to $108,600), as well as Shawano County (-7.1 percent
to $95,800) and Outagamie County (-7.7 percent to $129,200).
Finally, the largest slide in the median price was in Waupaca
County, where it dropped 17.9 percent
to $92,500 on solid sales volume in both Q1 2006 and Q1 2007.
The Wisconsin REALTORS® Association is one of the largest trade
associations in the state, representing over 17,000 real estate
brokers, sales people and affiliates statewide. Sales estimates
for the state are provided by the National Association of
REALTORS®, which seasonally adjusts quarterly sales figures.
All county figures on sales volume and median prices are
compiled by the Wisconsin REALTORS® Association and are not
seasonally adjusted. Median prices are only computed if the
county recorded at least 10 home sales in the quarter.
Printable Copy of this Press Release
Comparison from 2006 and 2007 Spreadsheet
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