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Which Party Will Control the Wisconsin Legislature?

 Joe Murray  |    May 06, 2010
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During extremely competitive election cycles, voters pay reasonably close attention to the high profile campaigns such as races for governor, U.S. Senate, Wisconsin attorney general or seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  But the November 2nd elections in Wisconsin will decide one other crucial question:  which party will control the Wisconsin Legislature? 

Today both houses of the Legislature are narrowly controlled by majority party Democrats.  Democrats have an 18 to 15-seat majority in the State Senate and a 52 to 46-seat majority in the State Assembly, with one Independent (Jeff Wood from Chippewa Falls).  This means both houses are up for grabs in the 2010 elections.  For Republicans to take control of the Senate, they would need a net gain of two seats; for the Assembly, a net gain of four seats.  The desire to regain or retain power is a motivating force for both parties. Democrat and Republican campaign staff are busy recruiting candidates and raising money to position their parties for the competitive and expensive fall campaigns.

According to the Pew Center on the States, there will be approximately 7,000 races for state legislative seats in all fifty states.  But both parties, along with their allies, are narrowly focusing on 100 key races in 16 states that could tip the balance of power in statehouses, including Wisconsin.

Targeting statehouse elections is particularly important to federal as well as state political parties in 2010 because of redistricting.  Redistricting – or reapportionment – happens every 10 years after the census and draws the boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts that will last a decade.  Each party knows that winning key statehouse campaigns would give it the power to redraw district lines and change the balance of power in any or all 16 states. The goal is to win control of state governments, including Wisconsin, ahead of the process for redrawing those political districts.  Thus, the outcome of this November’s elections carries significant short- and long-term political consequences.

Wisconsin Targeted Districts 

In the State Senate, 17 of the 33 seats are up for re-election in 2010.  The list includes all odd numbered districts: (note: open seats means the incumbent has decided not to run for re-election.)

Senator Alan Lasee (DePere, open)
Senator Tim Carpenter (Milwaukee)
Senator Jim Sullivan (Wauwatosa)
Senator Jeff Plale (Milwaukee)
Senator Joe Leibham (Sheboygan)
Senator Neal Kedzie (Elkhorn)
Senator Scott Fitzgerald (Juneau)
Senator Judy Robson (Beloit, open)
Senator Dale Schultz (Richland Center)
Senator Mike Ellis (Neenah)
Senator John Lehman (Racine)
Senator Pat Kreitlow (Chippewa Falls)
Senator Bob Jauch (Poplar)
Senator Jon Erpenbach (Middleton)
Senator Russ Decker (Wausau)
Senator Kathleen Vinehout (Alma)
Senator Ted Kanavas (Brookfield, open)

The targeted races for control over the Wisconsin State Senate will likely come down to these 6 districts:

Republicans:

Senator Alan Lasee (DePere, open)
Senator Dale Schultz (Richland Center)

Democrats:

Senator Jim Sullivan (Wauwatosa)
Senator John Lehman (Racine)
Senator Pat Kreitlow (Chippewa Falls)
Senator Kathleen Vinehout (Alma)

In the Wisconsin Assembly, all 99 seats are up every two years.  Out of the 99 districts, the following 9 districts are likely to decide which party controls the State Assembly:

Republicans:

R-80th:   Brett Davis (Oregon, open)
R-47th:   Keith Ripp (Lodi)
R-34th:   Dan Meyer (Eagle River)
R-87th:   Mary Williams (Medford)
I-67th:    Jeff Wood (Chippewa Falls, open)

Democrats:

D-2nd:    Ted Zigmunt (Francis Creek)
D-57th:   Penny Bernard-Schaber (Appleton)
D-92nd:  Mark Radcliff (Black River Falls)
D-42nd:  Fred Clark (Baraboo)
I-67th:    Jeff Wood (Chippewa Falls, open)

The political bottom line: out of 116 total state legislative races in Wisconsin in 2010, 14 key swing seats will likely decide which party controls the State Legislature.  The party in control decides committee chairs, committee members, which bills get to the floor of either house for consideration, and this year, how the district boundary lines will be drawn during the redistricting process. Nothing focuses the attention of individual legislators more than who will control the redistricting process and what their individual districts will look like for the next 10 years.

The 2010 legislative races, especially in these 14 districts, will more than likely break all the records on spending and political intensity.

Joe Murray is Director of Political & Governmental Affairs for the WRA.

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